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World Cup Qualifying Preview: Dreaming of Deutschland [Fri Sep 2nd, 2005]
World Cup Qualifying is winding down and this weekend sees crucial qualifiers set to be played across the globe. By weekend’s end we will more than likely know more of the 32 qualifiers for next year’s World Cup in Germany.
Hosts Germany, Argentina, Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have already qualified for the 2006 World Cup and this weekend they might be joined by first-timers Ukraine, Ivory Coast, and by perennial favourites and current holders Brazil, should results all go their way.
Then again, at this stage, with the stakes so high, some teams will crumble under the burden of great expectation, while others will surprise us all. Here is a regional breakdown of the weekend’s qualifiers:
EUROPE
Ukraine (23 points, 9 games played) have a golden opportunity to qualify for their first ever World Cup finals on Saturday. The Ukrainians, highly impressive thus far in their campaign, travel to Tbilisi to face Georgia (8 Pts., 8 GP). A win for Oleg Blohkin’s side will book their spot in Germany next summer and surely set up a wild night of celebration in Ukraine.
Elsewhere in Group 2, there will be a real pressure-cooker when Turkey (16 Pts., 9 GP) host resurgent Denmark (12 Pts., 8 GP). The Danes looked dead and buried after their loss to Ukraine back in March, but slip-ups by their rivals for second place have put them back in the hunt for a playoff berth. Turkey have their destiny in their own hands at this point in regards to second spot, but with two matches against Denmark and Ukraine in the span of four days, the Turks look to have it all to do in order maintain their hold on second.
Finally, Kazakhstan (0 Pts., 8 GP) will continue the search for their first point when they visit Albania (9 Pts., 9 GP).
In Group 1, Holland (22 Pts., 8 GP) and the Czech Republic (21 Pts., 8 GP) have long since ran away with the group, the only contest now being which of the two sides will finish first.
The Dutch seem to have the easier fixture this weekend as they play away to Armenia (4 Pts., 9 GP). The Czechs on the other hand travel to Romania (19 Pts., 10 GP).
Though the Romanians look out of it, a win over the Czechs could give them a chance, however little, of stealing second place, considering that the Czech Republic and Holland will face off in October.
Andorra (4 Pts., 8 GP) host Finland (12 Pts., 8 GP) in the group’s other match of the day.
A win over Luxembourg (0 Pts., 8 GP) would set up Portugal (20 Pts., 8 GP) to qualify for Germany ’06, assuming they can also defeat Russia on Wednesday.
Third-placed Russia (15 Pts., 9 GP) missed an opportunity to overtake second place from Slovakia (17 Pts., 9 GP) back in mid-August when they failed to win against Latvia (14 Pts., 9 GP) while Slovakia were held in Liechtenstein (5 Pts., 9 GP).
On Saturday, Russia host Liechtenstein, while Latvia face a tricky Estonia (11 Pts., 9 GP) side.
Group 4 is certainly the most difficult to predict out of all the European groups and it’s doubtful whether the picture will be clearer by late Saturday night.
Two games are on tap and while it appears as though France (10 Pts., 6 GP) have a walk in the park at home to the Faroe Islands (1 Pt., 6 GP), Switzerland (12 Pts., 6 GP) clash with Israel (11 Pts., 7 GP) in a crucial qualifier. Both teams are undefeated (as are group rivals Ireland and France), but a draw will be of little use to either side, and thus it could be a tense night in Basel.
Italy (13 Pts., 6 GP) look set to claim top spot in Group 5 though they will need to win their away match to Scotland (6 Pts., 6 GP) in order to ensure things go to plan.
Scotland, after such a poor start, are amazingly still only three points off the pace in the race for second place and a win over the Italians could bring their qualifying campaign to life.
The real match to watch though may be Slovenia (9 Pts., 6 GP) against Norway (9 Pts., 6 GP) in what is shaping up to be a knockout match of sorts for second place in the group. Meanwhile, Belarus (7 Pts., 6 GP) attempt to keep alive their slim chances of a playoff position when they play at Moldova (2 Pts., 6 GP).
The lasting effects of England’s 4-1 friendly defeat at the hands of Denmark last month will be seen on Saturday when Sven Goran-Eriksson’s team meet up with Wales (2 Pts., 6 GP) in Cardiff.
England (16 Pts., 6 GP) have won five straight qualifiers since they opened up their campaign with a 2-2 draw in Austria. Elsewhere, Group 6 leaders Poland (18 Pts., 7 GP) host Austria (11 Pts., 6 GP) while Northern Ireland (3 Pts., 6 GP) entertain Azerbaijan (2 Pts., 7 GP).
Serbia and Montenegro (12 Pts., 6 GP) can overtake Spain as leaders of Group 7 should they defeat Lithuania (9 Pts., 6 GP) at home. (7 Pts., 6 GP) host Belgium (8 Pts., 6 GP) Saturday’s only other Group 7 match.
In Group 8, Croatia (16 Pts., 6 GP) and Sweden (15 Pts., 6 GP) are the favourites to claim the top two positions, and both are in action on Saturday, Croatia are at Iceland (4 Pts., 7 GP) while Sweden play at home against Bulgaria (8 Pts., 6 GP). Hungary (10 Pts., 6 GP) are hosting Malta (1 Pt. 7 GP).
SOUTH AMERICA
Brazil (27 Pts., 15 GP) can retain their record of being the only country to participate in every World Cup finals should they defeat Chile (20 Pts.) on Sunday.
A win would also give us the second qualifier from the CONMEBOL region, as Argentina clinched qualification in June. Chile won’t be a push-over however - they currently lie in equal fifth spot, which would be good enough for a play-off against the Oceania qualifier.
After 15 rounds of play in the marathon round-robin South American format, Argentina (31 Pts.) are already through and won’t be too bothered about the normally difficult trip to Paraguay (22 Pts.) on Saturday.
The Paraguayans on the other hand are in fourth place at the moment and a win over the Argentines would be priceless at this stage.
Uruguay (18 Pts.) host Colombia (20 Pts.) in a crucial match that will possibly have a large bearing on who claims the all-important fifth place. Ecuador (23 Pts), have been awful in their travels and will hope their luck changes when they go to Bolivia (13 Pts.) on Saturday.
Bolivia are out of contention already, but life is never easy when playing in the high altitude of La Paz. Finally, Venezuela (15 Pts.) host Peru (15 Pts.) in a match that looks to have no effect on the outcome of the qualifiers.
AFRICA
In arguably the most important qualifier of the weekend regardless of region, the Ivory Coast (19 Pts, 8 GP) and Cameroon (17 Pts., 7 GP) lock horns in a qualifying decider. A win for the Ivorians would clinch their first-ever World Cup berth, while a win by Cameroon would put them on course for their fifth consecutive appearance at a World Cup.
Egypt (13 Pts., 8 GP) looks to secure third place and the African Nations’ Cup berth that comes with it by beating Benin (2 Pts., 8 GP).
Group 1 is too close to call at this point, but Togo (17 Pts., 8 GP) are set to shock the football world if they can win their last two qualifiers.
A win over bottom side Liberia (4 Pts., 8 GP) on Sunday would mean that qualification for the 2006 World Cup can be achieved by defeating Congo (10 Pts., 8 GP) away next month.
Zambia (16 Pts., 8 GP) and Senegal (15 Pts., 8 GP) meet up in Lusaka, both teams hoping to take advantage of any dropped points by Togo. Senegal, despite their wonderful showing at the 2002 World Cup, seem certain to miss next year’s tournament. Disappointing Mali (5 Pts., 8 GP) also host Congo.
Ghana (15 Pts., 8 GP) aim to take one step closer to their first ever World Cup berth when they host Uganda (7 Pts., 8 GP). The Black Stars have amazingly never qualified for the World Cup, but wins in their final two fixtures will ensure qualification.
In other Group 2 matches, South Africa (15 Pts, 8 GP) travel to Burkina Faso (9 Pts., 8 GP), while DR Congo (12 Pts., 8 GP) hosts the Cape Verde Islands (10 Pts., 8 GP)
Can Nigeria (15 Pts., 8 GP) really fail to qualify? Failure to win in Algeria (7 Pts., 8 GP) will mean the Super Eagles will have their run of three World Cup finals appearances snapped.
The Nigerians are level on points with Angola (15 Pts., 8 GP), but lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker, which means that Angola can amazingly qualify for the World Cup should they defeat Gabon (9 Pts., 8 GP) at home on Saturday and win in Rwanda (5 Pts., 8 GP) next month.
Zimbabwe (12 Pts., 8 GP) host the Rwandans in another Group 4 matchup.
Matters in Group 5 will probably be settled on October 7th when Tunisia (17 Pts., 8 GP) and Morocco (16 Pts., 8 GP) meet in Tunis. Until then, both must take care of business ahead of their super-clash.
This weekend, Morocco host Botswana (9 Pts., 8 GP) while Tunisia have a seemingly more difficult task away to Kenya (10 Pts., 8 GP). Guinea (11 Pts., 8 GP) play Malawi (3 Pts., 8 GP) as well on Sunday.
CONCACAF
On the 6th Matchday of the CONCACAF final round qualifying, the derby between the US (15 Pts.) and Mexico (16 Pts.) in Columbus is the match that has everyone’s attention.
But while that game may decide the top spot in the group, the real drama may be in Panama City and Port-au-Prince. Panama (2 Pts.) host Costa Rica (7 Pts.) in the Panamanians' final opportunity to bring themselves back into the fold.
Trinidad and Tobago (4 Pts.) could still steal the fourth spot should they put together a few victories beginning with Guatemala (7 Pts.) at home on Saturday. A win by Guatemala could put them on course to lock up third place, which would mean automatic qualification.
ASIA & OCEANIA
Uzbekistan and Bahrain clash in Tashkent in the first leg of their playoff. Both teams limped through the final round of Asian qualifying and will need to do better if they plan on keeping their respective World Cup dreams alive.
The Uzbeks may yet have the upper hand, especially after their miraculous 3-2 comeback win over Kuwait which allowed them to finish third in their group and thus progress to the playoff.
The two sides meet in Manama on Wednesday for the second leg, the winner of the play-off series will play a two-legged playoff against the fourth-placed team from the CONCACAF in November.
Australia could not have a more straightforward, dare we say easy, task when they face off against the Solomon Islands in the first leg of the Oceania playoff. Quite simply, Australia will be content with nothing else but a comprehensive victory on Saturday, which would make Tuesday’s second leg a mere formality.
George Tsitsonis
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