Football bets are of two types – one is where exact score is to be predicted, and for other, margin is to be guessed. The winning margin bet is where the bettors need to predict what the difference in goals scored will be. Since no exact score prediction is involved, the winning margin offers more possibilities to predict. It has various variations, which occur depending upon the past results. The winning margin bet involves two predictions – first is winning side and second is by what margin.
For example, if a winning margin of +2 is chosen as the result, the scorecard winning the bet for the punter will read either of these scores – 2-0, 3-1, 4-2 and likewise. Thus, the punters get more possibilities to win the bet, irrespective of what the scorecard reads.
Normal margins available
Winning margin bet is available in several variations, the most usual ones that a punter comes across are – 1, 2, 3 and 4+.
Example 1 – Winning Margin +1
Let’s consider a hypothetical match between Manchester United and Arsenal. If the punter backs M Utd with winning margin of +1 and the game is played at the home ground of M Utd, the winning combinations will be 1-0,2-1,3-2 and 4-3. The bet will be lost if Arsenal wins the match or the match ends in a draw.
Example 2 – Winning Margin +2
Let’s take another example of Arsenal taking on Chelsea at home ground. If you bet money on Arsenal for a winning margin of +2, the scores possibilities will be 3-1, 2-0, 4-2, and so on.
Example 3 – Winning Margin +3
Portsmouth’s win against Reading at Fratton Park, the home ground of former, had the score 7-4. This match was held in 2007. If the punter was given a winning margin of +3 to predict, this match could have earned him a win. It is an example of Winning Margin +3 bet.
Example 4 – Winning Margin +4
In this winning margin of +4 bet, the match which are mostly one-sided will be included. It will be a high scoring match. The teams that are on the top and bottom of the points tally are playing against each other in such bets. One such example would be Arsenal defeating Newcastle United by 7-3.
No goal or score draw bet
A match ending in a draw gives you a winning margin of 0. Since there is no win, the situation can either be ‘no goal’ or ‘score draw’. In no goal, as the name indicates, the scorecard will have no goals, it will read 0-0. And in score draw bet, the scorecard will earn the bettor the money if it reads 2-2,1-1, 3-3 and so on.
Apart from considering the whole match, the winning margin bet can also be predicted for a portion of the match, i.e. first half winning margin and second half winning margin. The first 10 minutes winning margin and the last 10 minutes winning margin are other options available.
Statistics used for predicting a winning margin bet
The punters have a lot of numbers to rlead these days as the statistics on matches are available in plenty and for free. Thus, they can move to betting with better preparation and may have high chance of win if the research goes right. Some of the statistics to consider while predicting the winning margin bet are:
- Current season form
The punters must carry out investigation on the form of the teams in the current season. If the teams have played high scoring matches, the punters must look at the average number of goals scored and conceded by the teams included in the bet. Another factor to look at is home team win and away team win. It is quite likely that home team scores more goals majority of the times. Thus, it is safe to give more weightage to the home teams. By doing this, you are backing the result whose possibility will be comparatively high.
- Head to head match results/score card
Another important statistic is head to head score or match result of the contending teams. By studying the result of the past matches where the teams contended head to head, the punters may find the usual score pattern. Thus, they can identify the stronger one of the two teams. This information should be clubbed with other facts like performance of the teams against similar teams. For instance, how the top ranking teams played against the middle order of the points tally chart and how middle rankers fared against each other helps to predict the winning margin of the coming match.
- Last 5 match record
It is the latest performance of the teams which tells how the teams have survived the changes made recently. The team composition could have changed recently due to injuries, suspensions or transfers, and if that shows effect on the score card, it becomes an important statistic to consider along with the study of head to head record.
How the winning margin bet benefits the players
The first benefit is that the bet comes with a high odd usually. It is a rather difficult bet to predict especially when the side has to be chosen before the match. So, the odds are kept high and that creates value in the bet.
Secondly, a winning margin bet increases the possibility of winning of an accumulator bet. Thus, the outcome is increased multifold and that makes this bet worth fighting for.
A winning margin bet does not require a punter to predict exact score. So, from that point of view, the bet is considered a bit easy. The difficulty in prediction process creeps in when the player has to select from the choices, +1, +2, +3 and so on. Hence, the punters should keep their research game spot on and look at the factors that affect the performance of any team. By considering the current form and last 5 match record and tips from the experts at Isfa, the punters can predict the winning margin bet rather confidently.